It’s only ever been about the product: price, segment, brand, availability. Surveys can cite infrastructure worries, battery life and raw materials sourcing but every EV available in the UK is sold (or more often leased), sometimes despite the auto industry’s best efforts. Those other factors are very real, but they don’t drive adoption (or otherwise) at this point in the market. As more EV models come on-stream – covering more vehicle types, more brands, with higher UK allocations, shorter lead times, longer ranges and cheaper price points – then it logically follows that an ever greater proportion of those who were only waiting for the right vehicle to come along are able to make the switch. Those factors are not enough to make an entire market switch, of course, but deep and broad battrification (I don’t like electrification in auto – it’s open to too much 48V abuse) will drive a big proportion of the switchers yet to jump. The UK historically buys more convertibles than any other country in Europe – how many buyers will only switch for an electric one…
There have always been a number of factors driving how quickly or slowly business uptake of EVs happens. For light vans, first and foremost has been the lack of product, once again. For commercial fleets, purchase price (much bigger delta between EV and ICE prices for like-for-like vans compared to cars), range (much more critical than for private drivers) and capacity haven’t been addressed as quickly and as a result the market is a few years behind cars in terms of product maturity. But that is changing, and the options available to van buyers have broadened hugely in the last couple of years, and the pace of change seems to be accelerating. Given that duty cycles vs battery sizes still lead to on-shift charging for many, the acceleration in infrastructure deployment is more critical than ever for cars. The rise of home-based vehicle fleets means “no driveway no EV” for many (although Trojan and others are changing that). One barrier that’s probably not discussed as often as it arises is the cultural challenge of moving from the traditional CAPEX-led to an OPEX-led funding model that favours EVs. One outcome is that organisations only consider EVs with a positive CAPEX-led business case, meaning purchase price reductions play a much bigger role in driving people’s decision to switch.